Immigration Policy and Enforcement Impact on U.S. Commercial Driver Supply
Recent changes in U.S. immigration policy and enforcement, especially regarding non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s Licenses (CDLs) and English Language Proficiency (ELP), are expected to remove between 5% to 12% of CDL holders (214,000–437,000 drivers) from the U.S. supply over the next two to three years. This contraction, combined with a prolonged freight recession and limited carrier investment, is building a wave of risks that could restrict capacity and increase costs for shippers.
Policy Changes and Enforcement Trends
The U.S. trucking industry is experiencing sudden regulatory change, with several new and enhanced immigration-related policies directly affecting the commercial driver workforce. The combined effect of these policies could bring a significant reduction in the available driver pool, with both short-term and long-term impacts for the industry.
Non-Domiciled CDL Restrictions:
On September 26, 2025, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) issued an emergency ruling that immediately restricts the issuance and renewal of non-domiciled CDLs. Under this rule, non-citizen CDL applicants must hold specific employment-based nonimmigrant visas and undergo a federal immigration status check and annual in-person renewals. States must verify immigration status before issuing or renewing non-domiciled CDLs, and many have paused issuance altogether.
The FMCSA estimates that 97% of the current 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders will be unable to satisfy the new requirements, leading to a likely exit from the industry over the next one to three years. This represents about 5% of the 3.8 million CDLs registered in the U.S., but the impact could be even greater in the for-hire segment, where non-domiciled drivers are more concentrated.
Drivers Affected by FMCSA Non-Domiciled CDL Rule
Source: Keynnect Logistics, Non-Domicile CDL Truckers - The 200,000 Facing FMCSA'S Crackdown
English Language Proficiency (ELP) Enforcement:
In April 2025, a new executive order mandated strict enforcement of ELP regulations. The ELP rule requires drivers to demonstrate the ability to converse with officials, read and respond to highway signage and complete required reports in English without translation aids.
After the requirements went into effect, ELP violations surged, with more than 19,000 violations recorded and over 5,000 resulting in out-of-service (OOS) orders. According to Avery Vise, in the October 2025 Trucking Update by FTR Intel, the annualized removals are estimated at about 20,000, marking a notable change from previous years, when ELP enforcement was relatively limited.
Violations of 49 CFR 39.1.11(b)
June 25, 2025-September 24, 2025
Source: Avery Vise, October 2025 Trucking Update by FTR Intel
Geographic considerations will play a role in states such as California, New Jersey, New York and Florida, where larger populations of commercial drivers may be affected by these regulations.
Since the issuance of the April 2025 executive order, 28% of such violations have resulted in out-of-service orders, according to Vise. The order includes an exemption for drivers operating commercial vehicles within designated zones along the U.S.-Mexico border. While these drivers may still be cited for ELP violations, they are not subject to out-of-service orders or disqualification from operating commercial vehicles.
Visa Policy Changes and Border Enforcement:
The administration has also tightened enforcement of cabotage regulations and B-1 visas, which allow foreign drivers to enter the U.S. for specific delivery purposes. There is growing pressure to prevent foreign carriers from abusing these visas to run domestic routes illegally. Additionally, new policies are restricting work visas for truck drivers, further limiting the pool of eligible new hires.
While stricter enforcement is anticipated to further limit available driver capacity and contribute to upward pressure on freight rates, particularly in segments previously reliant on lower-cost labor. Over time, these measures may support wage stabilization and enhance highway safety standards through improved compliance.
Overlap and Aggregate Impact:
There is significant overlap between drivers impacted by non-domiciled CDL restrictions and ELP enforcement. When accounting for undocumented drivers and new hire restrictions, the total at-risk population could surpass 600,000 drivers, or 16% of active drivers, according to Noël Perry at Transport Futures.
2025 Drivers At Risk
Source: Noël Perry, Transport Futures
Market Dynamics: Capacity, Rates and Shipper Implications
While experts broadly agree that these policies are likely to influence U.S. supply chains, the timing and extent of their impact remain uncertain and will depend on several factors, including enforcement practices, the potential introduction of additional regulations and the complexity of a nationwide market.
According to Vise, under a full-impact scenario in which all estimated non-domiciled CDL drivers and those affected by ELP enforcement have ceased operations, the industry could reach peak active truck utilization as early as the fourth quarter of 2026. More conservative estimations predict impact materialization over the next three years.
The enforcement of new immigration policies could create challenges for driver hiring and the overall availability of qualified commercial drivers. As the industry faces new requirements for non-domiciled CDLs and stricter enforcements for English Language Proficiency, it could disqualify tens of thousands of candidates each year. Perry estimates this could affect hiring by disqualifying a further 66,000 candidates annually.
Perry's analysis includes drivers removed by policies and the effect of hiring limitation over the span of three years. While the time to see impact is uncertain, the chart below illustrates the potential impact on a yearly basis. One year represents an aggressive estimate, while three years is a conservative estimate.
Additional Driver Hiring Annually*
*Analysis by Perry performed quarterly and converted to annual
Source: Noël Perry, Transport Futures
Historical precedents, such as the ELD and HOS mandates, show that regulatory shocks can shrink capacity and trigger rate increases and supply chain disruptions.
For the first time, both regulatory pressures and economic conditions will simultaneously drive capacity out of the market. Historically, these forces have operated independently. When the market responds, a swift shift would be expected, potentially resulting in disruptions comparable to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic era.
Change In Driver Hiring Requirements And Spot Price Deviation From Trend
Source: Noël Perry, Transport Futures
Conclusion
The evolving landscape of immigration policy and enforcement presents strategic considerations for carriers and shippers. As regulatory changes reduce the pool of eligible drivers, carriers will face increased competition for qualified labor, potential rate volatility and heightened compliance requirements. To remain resilient, carriers should prioritize proactive workforce planning, invest in compliance infrastructure and explore operational efficiencies. Those who adapt early and align with regulatory expectations will be better positioned to maintain service continuity and navigate shifting markets.
To mitigate these risks, shippers should prioritize early planning, strengthen relationships with reliable carriers, explore mode conversion strategies and budget for potential pricing volatility. Proactive engagement and flexible logistics planning will be key to maintaining supply chain stability in a shifting regulatory environment.